Rapture: Why do people love doomsday predictions?

People always tell you to live life like there's no tomorrow, and for once I'm considering following that advice - literally.

With a massive deadline looming on Monday, I was planning on spending most of the weekend working. But according to the evangelical preacher Harold Camping, the world is going to end tomorrow, so if today is going to be my last day on Earth, I think I'd like to spend tonight doing something a little more fun - especially if there's no all-day hangover awaiting me on the other side.

According to Camping, who is basing his prediction on a mathematical calculation using dates in the Bible, tomorrow - 21 May 2011 - is the Rapture. The day when Christians will rise up to meet Jesus in the sky.
It might sound silly if you don't believe in God, but according to a Pew Research Center poll, 41 per cent of people in the US believe Jesus will return to Earth before 2050. According to a New York news website, some of Camping's thousands of supporters have sold their belongings and quit their jobs in anticipation.

So why are people so keen to predict the end times? Sceptics might see it as a way to make money, or an attention-seeking ploy. Camping has certainly made a name for himself and his radio station. But according to Lorenzo DiTommaso, associate professor of religion at Concordia University in Montreal, Canada, these people have a genuine belief: "It wouldn't work otherwise," he says.

What's more, these kinds of apocalyptical prophecies have been around for 23 centuries since the Book of Daniel, he says, so are forcibly more than a media ploy.
One theory is that such precise predictions feed the human desire to know the unknown. It could simply be a way of trying to explain the world around us, or to give us hope, says DiTommaso: "Within its limitations, apocalypticism is very rational. It's a world view that explains time, space, and human existence. It's not science - it's not universal or repeatable - but it does explain things."

DiTommaso also says that sociological studies have shown that people who tend to enjoy an apocalyptic world view also seem to be the kinds of people who seek out explanations of the world: "They tend to be quite intelligent compared with the general population but they are looking for answers for how life is the way it is, and whether there is a purpose. Envisioning a better time past the evils of the world provides a very powerful way of understanding the world and all its problems." Surprising as it may sound, even Isaac Newton spent a great deal of his career trying to decipher the prophesies of Daniel in the book of revelation.
So, what's the likelihood Camping is right? If I'm going to base my weekend plans on his track record, I should probably keep my head down and work. He predicted the end of the world in 1994, but that one was postponed due to a scheduling error (turns out he got the mathematics wrong).

It may seem odd that people don't dismiss Camping, considering he got it wrong last time. But psychological studies show how the failure of such prophesies has the surprising effect of making the beliefs of their proponents' even stronger.
In their 1956 book When Prophecy Fails: A social and psychological study of a modern group that predicted the destruction of the world, Leon Festinger and others explained that this is a fundamental tenet of human psychology, which they called cognitive dissonance.

Essentially, the social psychologists said that people have a problem when they have two beliefs that sit uncomfortably side by side. For example, the belief that the world will end (for which you have sold your home and all your possessions bar a placard) and the realisation that the world is still here, as are you. In an article written for New Scientist, psychologist Richard Wiseman says: "According to this idea, people find it uncomfortable to hold two conflicting beliefs in their head at the same time, and will perform all sorts of mental gymnastics to reconcile the two."

Because people can't deal with having two contradictory beliefs, they will quickly find a seemingly rational explanation - that the calculations were wrong, for example, or that their preaching converted so many people that the world was saved.
There are other scientific explanations of why we prefer to stick to old beliefs, even in the face of new facts. For example, the principle of confirmation bias shows how we seek out information that supports our beliefs.
It seems then, that if the rapture doesn't happen Camping will be able to explain why, and his followers will likely believe even more strongly than they did before.

Explaining why the mathematics doesn't add up shouldn't be too hard, either, says DiTommaso: "The calculations depend on a lot of variables including a lot of data that can't be verified, like the fact that the world was created a little over 7000 years ago. You can really massage your figures any way you see fit."
If, like me, you're hedging your bets, why not just join in one of the Rapture parties: but make sure you buy some paracetamol for the morning, just in case.

Source New Scientist